According to Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF), the global average selling price (ASP) of solar modules is expected to decline by 35% in 2018, compared to previous forecasts of a 20% to 27% decline, due to the Chinese government curtailing solar growth through new policies initiated last Friday.
The halt to utility-scale PV projects and caps on distributed generation (DG) that is expected to result in China installing 30GW to 35GW in 2018, compared to over 53GW in 2017, could result in manufacturing overcapacity that would lead to the significant ASP decline of PV modules.
BNEF does not expect the solar industry to meet last year’s record global installations of around 98GW, due to the policy changes in China. BNEF had previously forecast global PV demand in 2018 to be around 107GW.
However, the module ASP declines expected in the second half of 2018 could stimulate demand growth in 2019 and in 2020, which may slow the ASP rate of decline in 2019 to 10% to 15%, according to BNEF.