Modern, overdeveloped societies in the West are already in a severe crisis, which will eventually turn into a long global emergency in the decades ahead. A five-century-long era of economic growth, ushered in by colonization and leading to the plundering of natural, mineral and most of all fossil fuel resources, is about to come to its logical endpoint. While it’s nearly impossible to tell precisely how or when the decline of modern civilization will unfold, one thing is for sure: it will look nothing like Hollywood movies.
The recent bumper crop of post-apocalyptic films are riddled with the same cliches. These themes do have a useful purpose such as making our story-telling brain feel comfortable, or evoking empathy for the protagonists, but they also mislead the audience. As any serious collapsologist would testify, these stereotypes not only make these movies extremely predictable, but also far removed from reality.
We need to set a few things straight about collapse. Let’s start with my personal favorite: namely, that collapse is a nearly instantaneous event, and that it happens everywhere, precisely at the same time. The day before, everything looks and works fine; the day after, the entire world is in ruins. Buildings look dilapidated in a matter of days, streets get clogged with crashed and abandoned vehicles, and there are barely any survivors left to be seen. Everything looks, well, visibly collapsed.
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When it comes to the likely reality of collapse, nothing could be further from the truth. Apart from a truly apocalyptic event (a massive meteor strike or a nuclear war bringing on a winter lasting many years and a complete destruction of the ozone layer) collapse will look completely different. First, it is not something happening everywhere at the same time, leading to billions of casualties in a matter of weeks. Sure, one can always conjure up the worst of all possible scenarios, such as an abrupt shut-down of the entire electric grid (leading to the utter breakdown of our life support system), or a multi-breadbasket failure causing global famine.
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Why is collapse inescapable then? Aren’t we the smartest species on the planet who can solve everything thrown at them? Although we are highly resourceful, especially when it comes to increasing profits, we have foolishly sacrificed long-term survival / sustainability for short-term gains. We’ve overplayed our hand, despite strong evidence that this could not possibly end well. Sure, we will continue to find ways to maintain our energy and material output — until we no longer can. Technology can and will help, but it is unable to reverse the depletion of rich mineral and fossil fuel deposits which made prior growth possible, and it comes at a cost.
Read more: The Honest Sorcerer