Norwegian-headquartered consultancy firm DNV has disclosed that the UK is set to miss its net zero by 2050 target and its decarbonisation commitments for 2030.

DNV has released the second edition of its UK Energy Transition Outlook (UK ETO), which presents the results from its independent model of the UK energy system for the period through 2050.

The UK ETO forecasts the energy supply, mix and demand and also provides insight into how the energy transition is developing in the UK.

A primary takeaway from the report’s findings is that, despite a strong start several years ago, the UK’s strong progress on the energy transition appears to be stalling. The UK ETO details how, without increased government intervention, the country will not meet its net zero by 2050 target.

Net Zero and Decarbonisation Targets

The scale of the UK’s shift to electricity as a power source, away from fossil fuels, is lower than initially reported in first iteration of the UK ETO. As such, oil and gas will still account for 35% of the UK’s primary energy supply mix in 2050.

The UK is not on track to meet targets

DNV’s forecast shows that the UK’s annual emissions will be reduced by 85% by 2050 relative to 1990 levels – not the 100% reduction legislated for in 2019.

That means Britain is not on track to meet its legally binding ‘Net Zero by 2050’ target or its 2030 commitments under the Paris Agreement.

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