A new report by RMI says batteries are on the path to replace 175 EJ of fossil fuel demand in the power sector, 86 EJ of fossil fuels from road transport and can put at risk another 23 EJ from shipping and aviation. That equates to a phaseout of half of global fossil fuel demand in the next two decades. Daan Walter, Sam Butler-Sloss and Kingsmill Bond at RMI summarise the findings in six graphs with explanations. Battery sales are growing exponentially like the best disruptive technologies. Costs keep falling while energy density rises. A domino effect has been cascading the advances in consumer electronics through to transport and grids. The drivers of change will strengthen (by 2030, top-tier energy densities will be between 600 and 800 Wh/kg, costs will fall to $32–$54/kWh, and battery sales will rise to between 5.5–8 TWh/year). And if you think that looks impressive, the authors note that forecasters have consistently underestimated progress.
A large off-grid battery system with Victron Quattro 8000 centre, a Victron solar charge controller right, and 6 Pylontech US3000 batteries left (Image: Tanjent)
Demand for batteries is growing exponentially, driven by a domino effect of adoption that cascades from country to country and from sector to sector. This battery domino effect is set to enable the rapid phaseout of half of global fossil fuel demand and be instrumental in abating transport and power emissions. This is the conclusion of RMI’s recently published report X-Change: Batteries. In this article, we highlight six of the key messages from the report.
