Next year is forecast to be the UK’s hottest on record due to an “unprecedented” El Nino event, the Met Office has warned.
This comes as the summer of 2026 is set to be the UK’s hottest since records began, with even average conditions in August meaning the record set last year will be surpassed.
El Nino is declared when sea temperatures in the eastern Pacific rise 0.5C above the long-term average. The weather pattern impacts rainfall and average temperatures across the globe.
The 2026 El Nino is forecast to raise sea temperatures more than 3C over the coming months. The Met Office said that would make the weather event “the largest since the 19th century”.
“We should be clear that this is an unprecedented event,” Professor Adam Scaife, head of long-range forecasting at the Met Office, said.
A typical El Nino leads to a sea temperature rise of between 1-2C, with 2C being a “really big event”, Mr Scaife said.
The expected rise of 3C means this El Nino will “far exceed our recent experience” of the weather pattern, he said.
“Hence, 2027 is very likely to replace 2024 as the warmest year on record and be another year to temporarily exceed plus 1.5C above the pre-industrial period.”
Speaking to BBC Radio 4’s Today programme, Mr Scaife added:
“I have not seen an event like this developing in our forecasts before. And assuming the forecasts are correct – and many other centres are giving the same signals – then we’re expecting the biggest El Nino for over a century, peaking at something over 3C.
“That is unheard of in modern climate records.”
Read more: The Independent on MSN
